Hurricane forecasters say average season ahead

Hurricane forecasters say average season ahead

Meteorologists from Colorado State University predict 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. However, only two of those are expected to be major hurricanes at category 3 or higher.

Colorado State University released its annual hurricane season forecast this morning during the National Tropical Weather Conference in San Antonio. Due to these factors, they have predicted a below-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the coast and in the Caribbean. "One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons".

El Niño can enhance wind shear in the Atlantic basin, restricting sufficient thunderstorm development, and, therefore, limiting tropical cyclone development.

The tropical Atlantic has cooled and the far northern Atlantic is cold, Klotzbach said in his report.

The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season had 15 named storms. The last major category 3 hurricane to hit Houston was Alicia in 1983.

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The 2017 season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, follows the deadliest in over 10 years for the Atlantic basin, and the costliest since 2012.

See also:2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List? Generally, their forecasts were better than nothing - with accuracy greater than 50/50, and found they're close to 80% accurate from year to year on the overall number of named tropical systems (tropical storms and hurricanes) that develop.

As the Spring severe weather season rolls on, we are already looking forward to the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

Released today, authors Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell call for a 42 percent probability of at least one major hurricane striking the United States and a 24 percent chance of an Eastern seaboard strike. Kudos to their team for starting what so many other private and commercial organizations have since emulated (creating other seasonal forecasts to serve their clients) using other algorithms in the following years - especially the last five.

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